October 2020 - MI Poll - Likely Voters
This poll, sponsored by Kiaer Research, consists of 669 likely voters in Michigan. Data collection took place from 10/21 to 10/28. 45% of respondents were recruited from IVR calls to randomly selected landline phone numbers obtained via public records, and 55% of respondents were recruited online using Amazon MTurk. Respondents needed to identify as Michigan residents to participate. Phone-based respondents completed the survey over an IVR system, and MTurk respondents completed the survey using a web survey platform. To match Michigan’s population parameters as according to the 2018 American Community Survey, data were weighted by education, age, sex, party ID, and race. Adjusting for the design effect from weighting, the 95% credible interval for the survey is +/- 5.6 points.
Any questions or inquiries can be directed to Nathan Browning through the contact form.
Topline Results
Thinking about the presidential election, will you be voting for Donald Trump, the Republican, or Joe Biden, the Democrat?
53.5% - Biden (+12.9)
40.6% - Trump
1.8% - Other/Third Party
4.1% - Undecided
Thinking about the Senate seat up for re-election in Michigan, will you be voting for John James, the Republican, or Gary Peters, the Democrat?
50.8% - Peters (+12.8)
38.0% - James
2.0% - Other/Third Party
9% - Undecided
Crosstabs (Note: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.)
MI Presidential:
| Biden | Trump | Undecided | Other candidate | NET | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Already voted | 63% | 34% | 0% | 2% | +29 Biden |
| Haven't voted | 43% | 48% | 8% | 2% | +5 Trump |
| Men | 54% | 43% | 2% | 2% | +11 Biden |
| Women | 53% | 39% | 6% | 2% | +14 Biden |
| College grads | 55% | 41% | 3% | 1% | +14 Biden |
| No degree | 53% | 41% | 5% | 2% | +12 Biden |
| Whites | 53% | 42% | 3% | 2% | +11 Biden |
| POC | 55% | 36% | 3% | 0% | +19 Biden |
| Dem. | 88% | 7% | 5% | 0% | +81 Biden |
| Rep. | 16% | 80% | 3% | 1% | +64 Trump |
| Ind. | 50% | 35% | 5% | 10% | +15 Biden |
| 18-29 | 51% | 39% | 4% | 6% | +14 Biden |
| 30-44 | 55% | 36% | 8% | 1% | +19 Biden |
| 45-64 | 53% | 45% | 1% | 0% | +8 Biden |
| 65+ | 56% | 40% | 4% | 0% | +16 Biden |
MI Senate:
| Peters | James | Undecided | Other candidate | NET | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Already voted | 64% | 31% | 3% | 2% | +33 Peters |
| Haven't voted | 36% | 46% | 17% | 2% | +10 James |
| Men | 53% | 36% | 8% | 3% | +17 Peters |
| Women | 49% | 40% | 10% | 1% | +9 Peters |
| College grads | 53% | 41% | 5% | 2% | +12 Peters |
| No degree | 50% | 37% | 12% | 2% | +13 Peters |
| Whites | 51% | 41% | 6% | 2% | +10 Peters |
| POC | 52% | 26% | 21% | 2% | +26 Peters |
| Dem. | 86% | 3% | 9% | 2% | +83 Peters |
| Rep. | 12% | 81% | 7% | 1% | +69 James |
| Ind. | 49% | 28% | 18% | 5% | +21 Peters |
| 18-29 | 37% | 33% | 25% | 6% | +4 Peters |
| 30-44 | 59% | 33% | 6% | 2% | +26 Peters |
| 45-64 | 51% | 43% | 6% | 0% | +12 Peters |
| 65+ | 56% | 40% | 3% | 1% | +16 Peters |
Full Survey Results, Demographics, & Wording
Oct. 2020 Poll
Note: results may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Demographics located at end of document.
Are you a Michigan resident?
100% - Yes
0% - No
Are you registered to vote in the State of Michigan?
99% - Yes
1% - No
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?
45.3% - Democrat
13.8% - Independent
40.9% - Republican
How likely is it that you'll vote in the general election in November?
88.4% - Definitely will vote
11.6% - Probably will vote
0% - Probably will not vote
0% - Definitely will not vote
[if likely to vote] Have you already cast your vote for the November general election through one of the early voting methods, or have you not yet cast your vote?
53.2% - Yes, already voted
46.8% - No, not yet voted
Thinking about the presidential election, will you be voting for Donald Trump, the Republican, or Joe Biden, the Democrat?
53.5% - Biden (+12.9)
40.6% - Trump
1.8% - Other/Third Party
4.1% - Undecided
Thinking about the Senate seat up for re-election in Michigan, will you be voting for John James, the Republican, or Gary Peters, the Democrat?
50.8% - Peters (+12.8)
38.0% - James
2.0% - Other/Third Party
9% - Undecided
What is your sex?
52.2% - Female
47.8% - Male
Please select the age range which you belong to.
20.9% - 18 to 29 years old
20.9% - 30 to 44 years old
35.2% - 45 to 64 years old
23.0% - 65 and up
With which race or ethnicity do your primarily identify?
78.7% - White
12.8% - Black or African American
3.2% - Hispanic or Latino
2.1% - Asian
2.0% - Multiracial
1.3% - A different race
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
37.6% - High school or less
26.2% - Some college
8.9% - Associate’s degree
17.1% - Bachelor’s degree
10.1% - Postgraduate degree or higher